Papers

PUBLICATIONS

“Long-Term Impacts of Childhood Medicaid Expansions on Outcomes in Adulthood” (with David Brown and Ithai Lurie).
NBER Working Paper 20835. Latest Version: December 2018. Accepted, Review of Economic Studies. [PDF and Online Appendix] [BKL Medicaid Calculator Documentation Only] [BKL Medicaid Calculator] [Slides]
Press Coverage: [Vox] [The Upshot – The New York Times] [The Upshot – The New York Times] [Connecticut Post] [Academy Health] [The New York Times] [Daily Tar Heel] [NBER Digest]
Video Presentation: [Yale Law School Conference on the Law of Medicare and Medicaid at 50, November 2014] [Slides]

Mandate-Based Health Reform and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Massachusetts Reform” (with Jonathan T. Kolstad).
Journal of Health Economics. February 2016. Vol. 47. 81-106. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 17933.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [Download Problem Set on This Paper]
Press Coverage: [Yale Daily News] [Boston Herald][Washington Examiner] [New York Times Economix Blog]
Video Presentations on Health Reform and the Labor Market: [Brookings Event on The Future of U.S. Health Care Spending, April 2014] [Slides]
[Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Conference on the Affordable Care Act and the Labor Market, March 2014] [Slides]

“Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care.”
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
January 2016. Vol. 34, No. 1: 107-117. (Job Market Paper) (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 15085.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Online Appendix] [Data Appendix] [Download Stata Command to Implement CQIV]
Awarded the Zellner Thesis Award

“Estimating the Tradeoff Between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance.”
International Journal of Industrial Organization. November 2015. Vol. 43: 122-135. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 18108.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Slides] [Online Appendix] [Data Appendix]

“Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity” (with Victor Chernozhukov and Ivan Fernandez-Val).
Journal of Econometrics. May 2015. Vol. 186: 201-221. (Older Versions: NBER Working Paper 16997. arXiv identifier 1104.4580. Boston University Department of Economics Working Paper 2009-012.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Download Stata Command to Implement CQIV]

“Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice” (with Martin Hackmann and Jonathan T. Kolstad).
American Economic Review. March 2015. Vol. 105, No. 3: 1030-66. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 19149.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Slides] [Data and Programs] [Online Appendix] [Download Problem Set on This Paper]
Press Coverage: [SHADAC Issue Brief] [SHARE Webinar with Slides] [Politico]
Awarded the NIHCM Research Award and the Yale Greer Prize (highlighted as part of research portfolio)

“The Early Impact of the Affordable Care Act State-by-State”
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2014:277-333. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 20597.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Full Slides] [Video Summary by Justin Wolfers] [Interactive Map] [Data and Programs] [Online Appendix]
Press Coverage: [Washington Post Blog] [Wall St Journal Blog] [Forbes] [Motley Fool] [Vox]
Radio Interview on Early Impact of the ACA: [Top of Mind with Julie Rose, July 2015]

“The Impact of Health Care Reform on Hospital and Preventive Care: Evidence from Massachusetts” (with Jonathan T. Kolstad).
Journal of Public Economics. December 2012. Vol. 96. 909-929. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 16012.) [Pre-publication PDF] [Slides]
Press Coverage: [NBER Digest] [Knowledge@Wharton] [Newsweek] [The Economist Online] [NPR WBUR CommonHealth]
Video Presentations of Massachusetts Research:
[Yale Panel on the Economy and the Election, November 2012] [Slides]
[ISPS Health At Yale, September 2013] [Slides]

“Health Reform, Health Insurance, and Selection: Estimating Selection into Health Insurance Using the Massachusetts Health Reform” (with Martin Hackmann and Jonathan T. Kolstad).
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings. May 2012. Vol. 102, No. 3: 498-501. (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 17748.)

“The Role of Hospital Heterogeneity in Measuring Marginal Returns to Medical Care: A Reply to Barreca, Guldi, Lindo, and Waddell” (with Douglas Almond, Joseph J. Doyle, and Heidi Williams).
Quarterly Journal of Economics. November 2011. Vol. 126, No. 4: 2125-2131. [Pre-publication PDF]
Response to comment on “Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-Risk Newborns”

“Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-risk Newborns” (with Douglas Almond, Joseph J. Doyle, and Heidi Williams).
Quarterly Journal of Economics. May 2010. Vol. 125, No. 2: 591-634.[Online Appendix] (Older Version: NBER Working Paper 14522.) [Download Problem Set on This Paper]
Awarded the HCUP Outstanding Article of the Year Award and the Garfield Economic Impact Award

“State Health Insurance Regulations and the Price of High-Deductible Policies” (with William J. Congdon and Mark H. Showalter).
Forum for Health Economics & Policy. 2008. Vol. 11: Iss. 2 (Health Care Reform), Article 8.
Press Coverage: [Wall Street Journal]

WORKING PAPERS

“Counting Defiers.”
NBER Working Paper 25671. First Version: March 2019.

“A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial.”
NBER Working Paper 25670. First Version: March 2019.

“Behavior Within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines.”
NBER Working Paper 25049. First Version: September 2018. Latest Version: February 2019.[Slides]
Includes content from “Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments.” NBER Working Paper 22363. First Version: June 2016.

“Reconciling Seemingly Contradictory Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment and the Massachusetts Health Reform.” NBER Working Paper 24647. Latest Version: February 2019. [Slides]
Includes content from “Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments.” NBER Working Paper 22363. First Version: June 2016.
Press Coverage: [NPR Marketplace] [Yale Alumni Magazine]

“Politics, Hospital Behavior, and Health Care Spending” (with Zack Cooper, Eleanor N Powell, and Jennifer Wu).
NBER Working Paper 23748. Latest Version: February 2019. [Slides]
Press Coverage: [The Economist] [Politico] [The Upshot – The New York Times]

“Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation with Stata” (with Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, and Sukjin Han).
NBER Working Paper 24232. Latest Version: December 2018. Revised & Resubmitted, Stata Journal. [PDF][Download Stata Command to Implement CQIV]

“How to Examine External Validity Within an Experiment.”
NBER Working Paper 24834. Latest Version: July 2018.

“What Do Longitudinal Data on Millions of Hospital Visits Tell Us About Public Health Insurance as a Safety Net for the Young and Privately Insured?”
NBER Working Paper 20887. Latest Version: January 2015. [Slides] [Data Appendix]
Revising and extending with Kurt Lavetti as coauthor.

WORK IN PROGRESS

“Returns to Medicare Spending: Evidence From Variation Across Physicians.” (with Joseph J. Doyle and Heidi Williams).
Latest Version: Coming soon.

“Medicaid Expansions and Health Spending Growth.” (with Mikhail Golosov).
Latest Version: Coming soon.