Current Research and Conference & Working Papers

• Socioeconomic Malaise & Decline, Sociocultural Threat-Perception, and Xenophobic Nationalist Extremum, project joint with Diogo Ferrari (UC-Riverside), Patrick Wu (NYU), Hayden Jackson (UMich), ByungKoo Kim (UMich), Wooseok Kim (UMich), and Jessica Wai (UMich), and with the further research assistance of Jennifer Guerrero (UChicago):
  • Paper: “How Socioeconomic Malaise & Decline Fuel Xenophobic Nationalist Extremism,“ with Diogo Ferrari (UC-Riverside), Patrick Wu (NYU), Hayden Jackson (UMich), ByungKoo Kim (UMich), Wooseok Kim (UMich), and with further assistance of Jennifer Guerrero (UChicago), TAMU November 2021.
  • Research Presentation: “With Extreme Prejudice: What explains the rise of far-right nationalist-xenophobic extremism & rightwing populism in the US & other Developed Democracies?“ with Diogo Ferrari (UC-Riverside), Patrick Wu (NYU), Hayden Jackson (UMich), ByungKoo Kim (UMich), Wooseok Kim (UMich), The Miller-Converse Lectures, Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan, April 2021.
  • Conference Paper: “The Role of Economic Malaise & Decline in the Rise of Extreme-Nationalist Populism,“ with Diogo Ferrari (UC-Riverside), Patrick Wu (NYU), Hayden Jackson (UMich), ByungKoo Kim (UMich), Wooseok Kim (UMich), MPSA 2020, APSA 2020.
• Diagnosing, Modeling, Interpreting, & Leveraging Spatial Relationships in Time-Series-Cross-Section Data (Project Joint w/ Jude C. Hays):
  • Proposal: “Diagnosing, Modeling, Interpreting, and Leveraging Spatial Relationships in Time -Series-Cross-Section Data” (w/ Jude C. Hays), NSF Proposal, Jan 2003.
  • Conference Paper: “Modeling Spatial Relationships in International and Comparative Political Economy: An Application to Globalization and Capital Taxation in Developed Democracies” (w/ Jude C. Hays), MPSA 2003 (March).
  • Conference Paper: “Empirical Modeling Strategies for Spatial Interdependence: Omitted-Variable vs. Simultaneity Biases” (w/ Jude C. Hays), PolMeth 2004 (July).
  • Conference Paper: “Modeling Spatial Interdependence in Comparative and International Political Economy with an Application to Capital Taxation” (w/ Jude C. Hays), MPSA 2005 (April).
  • Conference Paper: “Spatial Econometric Modeling, with Application to Employment Spillovers and Active-Labor-Market Policies in the European Union” (w/ Jude C. Hays), Groningen workshop “Partisan Politics, Political Autonomy, and Policy Harmonization across Europe” 2005 (May).
  • Conference Paper: “Calculating Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Effects” (w/ Jude C. Hays), ECPR 2006 (April).
  • Conference Paper: “Spatio-Temporal Models for Political-Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section Data” (w/ Jude C. Hays), PolMeth 2006 (July).
  • Proposal: “Spatial-Econometric Models for Political & Social Sciences” (w/ Jude C. Hays), NSF Proposal, Aug 2007.
  • Conference Paper: “Correlation in European Union Labor-Market Policies: Interdependence or Common Stimuli?” (w/ Jude C. Hays), APSA 2007 (August).
  • Conference Paper: “Spatial Interdependence in Comparative and International Political Economy” (w/ Jude C. Hays), Essex & CEPREMAP, March 2008.
    • Data and Code (Excel and Matlab formats) for ML estimation of spatiotemporal-lag models.
  • Proposal: “Spatial-Econometric Models for the Political and Social Sciences” (w/ Jude C. Hays), NSF Proposal, Aug 2008: Project Summary, Description, References, Appendix.
  • Conference Paper: “The Spatial Probit Model of Interdependent Binary Outcomes: Estimation, Interpretation, and Presentation” (w/ Jude C. Hays), Public Choice Society 2009 (March) version.
    • Data and Code: Matlab and Stata code for spatial-probit estimation by RIS, also MatLab code for the RIS Monte Carlos and Stata data for the World War I entry-decision application.
  • Conference Paper: “An m-STAR Model of Dynamic, Endogenous Interdependence – a.k.a. Network-Behavior – in the Social Sciences” (w/ Jude C. Hays & Aya Kachi).
    • These two versions of the paper differ by intended audience, Network Analysts and Spatial Econometricians, respectively; what parts are explained in the paper and what parts are instead relegated to appendix differ accordingly.
    • For data and code, please see Statistical Methodology article above.
    • m-STAR for Political Networks 2009 (June) version, appendix to PolNet 2009 version.
    • m-STAR for Spatial Econometrics Association 2009 (June) version, appendix to SEA 2009 version.
  • Conference Paper: “A Comparison of the Small-Sample Properties of Several Estimators for Spatial-Lag Count-Models” (w/ Jude C. Hays), PolMeth 2009 (July).
    • Data and Code: Matlab code and data to replicate application and Monte Carlo analyses in the paper.
  • Conference Paper: “History Dependence in Network-Behavior Coevolution: A Type-Interaction Model Merging Spatial-Econometric and Network-Analytic Approaches” (w/ Jude C. Hays & Aya Kachi), PathDep 2010 & SEA 2010 (June), PolMeth 2010 (July).
    • Data and Code: Matlab and R code to replicate the Monte Carlo analyses of Siena in the paper. (The rest of the application and other Monte Carlos involve only logistic regression.)
    • Harold Gosnell Prize 2011 for the best work of political methodology presented at a political science conference, awarded by The Society for Political Methodology.
  • Conference Paper: “Spatial, Temporal, and Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Probit Models of Binary Outcomes: Estimation, Interpretation, and Presentation” (w/ Jude C. Hays & Lena M. Schaffer), APSA 2010 (September) & EPSA 2011 (June).
    • Data and Code: Data and Matlab code to replicate the empirical and Monte Carlo analyses in the paper. (See also the earlier “Spatial Probit” paper above for additional Matlab and Stata code and data from the spatial probit application and analyses in that paper.)
  • Book Manuscript: Spatial-Econometric Models of Interdependence (w/ Jude C. Hays)
    • Just the Prospectus & Table of Contents, as of August 2010.
    • Chapters, Prospectus, & Table of Contents, as of August 2010.
• Representation & Authority Allocation in Democratic Policymaking:
  • Proposal: “Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM) of Effective Democratic Representation: Electoral- and Party-Systemic Institutions, Structures, and Strategic Contexts,” NSF Proposal, July 2003.
  • Conference Paper: “Party Unity and the Effective Constituency in Distributive Politics” (w/ Irfan Nooruddin & Karen Long Jusko), Mar 2007.
  • Conference Paper: “Multiple Policymakers: Veto Actors Bargaining in Common Pools,” Feb 2010.
  • Conference Paper: “Comparative Democratic Budgeteering: The Context-Conditionality of Policymakers’ Incentives and Capacities for Policy Manipulation,” Mar 2011.
  • Conference Paper: “Confronting the Endogeneity of Economy, Policy, and Politics: Inequality & Unemployment, Redistribution & Social Insurance, and Political Participation” (w/ Jude C. Hays), Feb 2008.
    • For data and code, please see Democracy, Inequality, & Representation chapter above.
• Other Conference Papers, Working Papers, & Work in Progress:
  • Conference Paper: “Estimating the Cost of Social Democracy by Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Close Elections” (w/ Jude C. Hays), Nov 2007.
  • Conference Paper: “Trade Globalization, Politics, and the Choice of Policies and Institutions: Three Varieties of Institutional Divergence” (w/ James Mosher), February 2003.
  • Conference Paper: “Political Participation, Income Distribution, and Public Transfers in Developed Democracies,” March 2002.
    • Data: (Country Codes in OECD order: 1=US, 2=Japan, 3=(West) Germany, 4=France, 5=Italy, 6=U.K., 7=Canada, 8=Austria, 9=Belgium, 10=Denmark, 11=Finland, 12=Greece, 13=Ireland, 14=Netherlands, 15=Norway, 16=Portugal, 17=Spain, 18=Sweden, 19=Switzerland, 20=Australia, 21=New Zealand)
      • Participation, Inequality, and Transfers Data Base in Lotus 1-2-3 (*.WK1) Worksheet Format; in Microsoft Excel (*.XLS) Worksheet Format; in ASCII Text Format (*.TXT).
  • Conference Paper: “The Positive Political Economy of Public Debt: An Empirical Examination of the OECD Postwar Experience through the 1990s,” Mar 2002.
    • Data: (Country Codes in OECD order: 1=US, 2=Japan, 3=(West) Germany, 4=France, 5=Italy, 6=U.K., 7=Canada, 8=Austria, 9=Belgium, 10=Denmark, 11=Finland, 12=Greece, 13=Ireland, 14=Netherlands, 15=Norway, 16=Portugal, 17=Spain, 18=Sweden, 19=Switzerland, 20=Australia, 21=New Zealand)
      • The Political Economy of Public Debt Data Base in Lotus 1-2-3 (97) Workbook Format; The Political Economy of Public Debt Data Base in Lotus 1-2-3 *.wk1 Worksheet Format; The Political Economy of Public Debt Data Base in Microsoft Excel *.XLS Worksheet Format; The Political Economy of Public Debt Data Base in ASCII Text Format (*.TXT)
  • Conference Paper: “Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis” (w/ Cindy Kam & Amaney Jamal), Sep 2001.
  • Conference Paper: “Democracy, Values, and Economic Development” (w/ Sean Ehrlich, Tom Flores, Gil Krakowksy, Ron Inglehart), Aug 2000.
    • Nominated for the Best Paper in Religion and Politics presented at the 1999 APSA conference.