Written by Gabi Breuer
In late October, Argentina held presidential elections, crucial in determining how the country would handle its economic turmoil. Since the nineties, Argentina has struggled with such hardships: having substantial debts, falling into deep recession periods, and facing extraordinary inflation. This most recent election was critical to ensure Argentinians were put on the proper path to fix decades of poor economic decisions.
On November 19th, Argentina’s run-off election day, Javier Milei faced Sergio Massa after neither candidate received the necessary votes to win the first round. Milei won with 56% of the votes primarily due to his radical economic plan, which gave many Argentinians hope (Eliott, 2023). Even with the majority vote, people were anxious about the immediate ramifications their newly elected president would have on the peso. As of October 2023, inflation reached a 143% high, resulting in four in ten people living in poverty and the nation heading towards its sixth recession in a decade (Gillespie, 2023).
The morning after the election, Argentinians were most concerned with the “blue dollar” value. The blue dollar is a parallel rate to the dollar commonly used in backroom financial houses. Although the blue dollar is an unofficial exchange rate, news sites track the exchange in real-time due to its popularity. Starting his presidency with the blue dollar’s value increasing by 13%, Milei’s time in office began on a celebratory note (Biller, Politi, 2023). Compared to the bank-set price of 356 pesos to the dollar, the blue dollar exchange is almost triple that. The rate increase was an immediate positive sign for the newly elected president and possibly a beacon of hope that his economic plan could lead the country out of a recession.
Milei’s campaign was built upon perhaps the boldest plan any candidate has proposed in some time. The “Hail Mary” looks to dismantle the Argentine peso entirely and put into effect the US Dollar as the national currency. By dollarizing the economy, the national bank would set an exchange rate and buy back pesos.
Although the idea may seem far-fetched, it has been successfully implemented in Ecuador and Panama. It is important to highlight that both these countries have significantly smaller economies, whereas Argentina remains the third-largest economy in Latin America despite its economic difficulties (Gura, Martin, 2023). Argentina’s size will play a major part in the outcome of Milei’s plan as it faces the tedious process of buying back pesos from its 45 million citizens.
In addition to the nation’s size, Argentina faces a more significant problem. Likely, they do not have enough dollars to replace the peso, at least without causing an expansive currency shortage. Currently, the country owes the International Monetary Fund $44 billion and has $7.5 billion less than that in its reserves (Gura, Martin, 2023). It is improbable Argentina can find the funds to properly buy back all its pesos.
Even if the government did have the funds, Milei would need to convince over 45 million people to exchange their money in large quantities. This alone is an immense obstacle to face. With this being said, the Argentinian people feel a sense of safety with the US dollar, which could help ease the transition. Seeing that the peso loses value rapidly, Argentinians prefer to save money in American cash because of its reliability. As a result, 10% of all globally circulating US dollars are held in Argentina (Nica et al., 2023). This sense of safety helped Milei’s plan appeal to many and gain him their vote.
If Milei successfully dolarizes the economy, Argentina will lose autonomy over its currency and will depend entirely on the US for monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve would continue to make decisions based on what benefits the American economy, regardless of the impact on Argentina. Argentina would also lose its power to print money, an act done repeatedly over the last few decades in hopes of solving its crisis (Velde, Veracierto, 2023). Ultimately, money would be printed in the US.
Roughly two weeks after his election, Milei took the first step towards a new page in Argentine economics. The president appointed Luis Caputo as his economic minister. Caputo formerly served as the country’s finance minister and is known for his connections with Wall Street. Milei’s decision to appoint Caputo is a relatively calm choice compared to his alternatives. Previously, Milei had mentioned naming Emilio Ocampo, a strong supporter of dollarisation, but Ocampo backed out of the role (Nugent, 2023). Caputo’s appointment has many believing Milei will put aside his dollarization plan and focus on other issues first, like putting an immediate halt on printing excess money.
It is difficult to tell precisely what direction Milei will take in his first months as president, but it is clear that whatever decides, his attack must be aggressive. Javier Milei is set to take office officially on December 10th.
Works Cited
Biller, David, and Daniel Politi. “After the Dollar-Loving Milei Wins the Presidency, Argentines Anxiously Watch the Exchange Rate.” AP News, November 21, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/milei-argentina-dollar-peso-exchange-bb61f9e9a6108ba0ced63f89b2cfd431.
“Dollarization in Argentina.” Federal Reserve Cank of Chicago, 1999. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/1999/june-142.
Elliott, Larry. “Would Javier Milei’s Dollar Plan for Argentina Be an Economic Experiment Too Far?” The Guardian, November 20, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy.
Gillespie, Patrick. “Argentina Inflation Hits 143% in Final Release before Presidential Election.” Bloomberg.com, November 13, 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-13/argentina-s-inflation-hits-143-in-final-release-before-election?embedded-checkout=true.
Martin, Michel, and David Gura. “Argentina’s President-Elect Javier Milei Has a Plan to Fight Inflation: Dollarization.” NPR, November 22, 2023. https://www.npr.org/2023/11/22/1214619380/argentinas-president-elect-javier-mile-has-a-plan-to-fight-inflation-dollarizati.
Nicas, Jack, Natalie Alcoba, and Lucía Cholakian Herrera. “In Country Where Houses Are Bought in $100 Bills, Plans for Sweeping Change.” The New York Times, November 24, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/world/americas/argentina-economy-peso-dollar-javier-milei.html#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20about%2010,to%20%243%2C100%20for%20every%20American.
Nugent, Ciara. Argentina’s Javier Milei names moderate ex-trader as economy minister, November 29, 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/330bd3fb-b418-458f-9b2b-31718b52f935.