Working Papers
Working papers available through the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“Labor mobility and unemployment in a currency union,” (with Erin P. Gibson, Christopher L. House and Christian Proebsting), working paper 2025.
“Municipal Bonds during the COVID-19 Crisis: A Factor Model Approach,” (with Andrea Foschi, Dmitriy Stolyarov and Matthew G. Wilson), working paper 2023
“Saving Europe: Some Unpleasant Supply-Side Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity“, (with Enrique Mendoza and Jing Zhang) NBER WP 20200.
Selected Publications
“Inter-State Labor Mobility and the U.S. Economy,” with Andrea Foschi, Chris House, and Christian Proebsting, prepared for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 2025.
“Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks,” with Andrea Foschi, Chris House, and Christian Proebsting, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, forthcoming 2025.
“Quantifying the Benefits of Labor Mobility in a Currency Area, “ (with Christopher L. House and Christian Proebsting). Review of Economics Studies, 2025 Appendix. Data appendix. Technical appendix
“Labor mobility and unemployment over the business cycle,” (with Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, and Christian Proebsting), American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2023
“A North-South Model of Structural Change and Growth,” (with Maria Aristizabal-Ramirez and John V. Leahy), Journal of Monetary Economics, 133, pp. 77-102, 2023
“A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff,” (with Enrique G. Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, and Jing Zhang), 71, pp 243–299, 2023.
“Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context,” (with Dmitriy Stolyarov), Economic Modelling, vol 101, Aug 2021.
“Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession,” (with Christopher L. House and Christian Proebsting), Journal of Monetary Economics, 115, pp. 37-63, 2020. Appendix Data Appendix Technical Appendix Vox article
“Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations,” (with Christopher L. House and Christian Proebsting), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 52:S2, pp. 429-463, 2020. Appendix
“Financial Constraints, Institutions and Foreign Ownership,” (with Ron Alquist, Nicolas Berman and Rahul Mukherjee), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 11, pp. 63-83, 2019.
“The Value of Being Systemically Un-important: The Case of MetLife,” (with Chris Naubert), Review of Finance, Vol. 23:6, pp. 1069-1078, 2019.
“Fire-sale FDI: All smoke and no fire?,” (with Ron Alquist and Rahul Mukherjee), Vox EU commentary, 2016.
“Fire-sale FDI or Business as Usual?,” (with Ron Alquist and Rahul Mukherjee), Journal of International Economics, 98, pp. 93-113, 2016.
“Greek Budget Realities: No easy options,” (with Christopher L. House), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2015.
“Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey,” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Council of Economic Advisers white paper, 2015.
“The Impact of Foreign Liabilities on Small Firms: Firm-Level Evidence from the Korean Crisis,” (with Yun Jung Kim and Jing Zhang), Journal of International Economics, 97(2), pp. 209-230, 2015.
“The Euro Crisis,” (with Kathryn Dominguez), RSQE Conference 2013.
“The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Enrique Mendozo), American Economic Review, 2011.
“The Role of Trade Finance in the U.S. Trade Collapse: a Skeptic’s View,” (with Logan Lewis), chapter 7 in Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche (eds.) Trade Finance During the Great Trade Collapse, Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2011, 133-147;
“The collapse of international trade in 2008-9: In search of the missing gun,” (with Andrei Levchenko and Logan Lewis), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58:2, pp. 214-253, 2010.
“Border Effect or Country Effect? Seattle may not be so far from Vancouver after all,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 1: 1, pp. 219-41, 2009.
“The value of control in emerging markets“, (with Anusha Chari and Paige Parker Shelby), Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 23, Issue 4, p. 1741, April 2009.
“International Trade, Production Sharing and the Transmission of Business Cycles,” (with Ariel Burstein and Christopher Kurz), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44:4. pp. 775-795, 2008.
“Cross-Border Trading as a Mechanism for Capital Flight: ADRs and the Argentine Crisis,” (with Sebastian Auguste, Kathryn Dominguez and Herman Kamil), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 53: 7, pp. 1259-95, 2006.
“Exchange Rate Exposure,” (with Kathryn Dominguez), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 68:1, 2006.
“International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina,” (with Kathryn Dominguez) International capital flows, NBER, 2006.
“Why Hasn’t Tax Competition Triggered a Race to the Bottom? Some Quantitative Lessons from the EU,” (with Enrique Mendoza), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 52:1, January 2005.
“Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification,” (with Patrick Rowland), Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 7, Issue 4, October 2004, Pages 789-826.
