Written by Aeres Zhou
Contrary to what the title may suggest, this article will not teach you the ideal strategy to approach any one person, but rather explore the macro strategy of how to end up with the most suitable partner. I think most people can agree that the end goal of dating is to marry the best person possible. After all, the decision to marry is probably one of the biggest decisions any person will make in their lifetime, and what is economics but the study of decisions? With a little math and logic, the outcome of any strictly defined decision can be (roughly) modeled and optimized. Will the model hold up to the rigors and complexity of real life? Let’s find out.
The problem essentially boils down to: what is the strategy that enables someone to find the best candidate possible? It turns out, there is a very similar pre-existing problem known as the secretary problem. The statement of the secretary problem is as follows: “You are given an unknown large number n of applicants for the position of your secretary, all of whom can be objectively ranked best to worst. You can only interview them one by one, and if you deny someone you must move to the next applicant. The order of the applicants is random, and the decision to accept or reject can only be based on previous applicants.” Given these criteria, how would you approach the problem?
The dilemma in the problem (as it is in real life) is that you have no idea what the potential pool is, nor do you know who the next applicant will be. Accordingly, there are two general strategies. The first is to pick the applicant completely randomly, giving you a 1/n chance of picking the best applicant. The second is to interview and reject some people as a sample to compare to, then pick the best person based on the established baseline from the remaining pool. As with any decision, you have to make tradeoffs. Obviously, you don’t want to pick randomly, since the chance of picking the ideal applicant is far too low, so you go with the second option.
The second option also comes with tradeoffs, however. The longer you take to establish a baseline for your applicants, the fewer applicants you have left to choose from, and the likelier it is that you reject the best applicants as part of the baseline. However, if you don’t take enough time to establish a proper baseline, you might pick a subpar applicant because the baseline doesn’t reflect the strength of the pool of applicants. What you must balance in your decision-making process is probability: how much more likely are you to pick the best applicant with each new person you add to the sample?
Without getting into the nitty-gritty of the calculations, the solution is to interview and reject n/e applicants to form the baseline sample (where e is Euler’s number) and pick any subsequent applicant that was better than all sample applicants. This strategy maximizes the chance of picking the best applicant at 1/e, or around 37%. Considering the scenario we’re applying the problem’s logic to, those aren’t bad odds. The math for picking the top 3 applicants gets much hairier, and can’t be contained in a nice expression, but the odds are certainly higher. This means that, following this strategy, you theoretically have at least a 37% chance to end up with one of the best possible candidates.
Thinking about the secretary problem regarding dating, let’s say you want to date 50 times maximum in your life. This means that you should date 50/e (around 18) people to establish your baseline, rejecting them all. Then, you date at most 32 other people until you find someone better than anyone you’ve dated before, and pick that person to be your long-term partner. However, once we apply the scenario to real life, we can obviously see some areas where the constraints become unrealistic.
For example, the biggest fault in the secretary problem when thinking is that you aren’t able to go backward. Unless the other person is dead, married, or otherwise indisposed, you can always return to a previous relationship (provided the other person is willing). Due to this fact, your options open up a lot more. For example, you could reach a point where you decide that continuing to look for new partners isn’t worth it and go back to the best candidate so far, or you could date up to your limit and simply pick the best one out of the n candidates (again assuming that they’re still available).
Your values can also change with time. The criteria for “the best” may not be the same when you’re fifty as when you’re fifteen. As you change and grow, you will begin looking for different criteria. This fact is even more support for the strategy of going through as much of your total number as you can before deciding since you don’t want to make an early decision based on values that will likely change.
Another major caveat to the strategy I’ve outlined above is the time it will take. The average length of a relationship is 2 years, so even if n were a relatively smaller number like 25, that would mean a worst-case scenario of 50 years of searching (How long). Most people probably aren’t willing to wait that long, so they’ll need to adjust their total sample and therefore their cutoff point to reflect how quickly they want a long-term relationship.
You also can’t always expect to move on quickly. There’s an information asymmetry every time you enter a relationship, and this could very well affect your evaluations. It takes a while to actually get to know someone, so if someone rushes through the process, they may end up making the wrong decision because of incomplete or inaccurate information. It’s also difficult to just drop a relationship out of the blue most of the time. In cases where you’re living together or something similar, the affairs can take quite a while to sort out.
While the secretary problem offers a fascinating framework for considering dating strategies, it’s crucial to acknowledge its limitations when applied to real-life relationships. Therefore, rigidly adhering to the secretary problem is impractical. However, it serves as a thought-provoking lens to consider balance and probability in your journey to find a compatible partner. Remember, love is complex, and the most suitable companion may not fit neatly into a mathematical equation. Ultimately, the most important factors are self-awareness, open communication, and pursuing connections that bring you genuine joy and fulfillment. Let love guide your way, with a dash of logic to inform your choices, not dictate them.
References
How long do most relationships last before breaking up? | allo health. (2023, July 4). https://www.allohealth.care/healthfeed/sex education/how-long-do-most-relationships-last-before-breaking-up.