Written by Raj Asher
With much fanfare, in December 2020 both Pfizer and Moderna released their vaccines to the public, touted with high efficacy in fighting COVID-19. Now, almost two months later, the U.S. is seemingly in the same spot: the depths of the pandemic. This is due to a variety of factors, one of which being the issue of getting people vaccinated. As of January 28th, 1.3% of the U.S. population had received doses. The more concerning metric is that this is not due to a lack of production; only 54% of the current supply had been used (Carlsen). While this is largely due to a lack of coordination, some of the blame can be attributed to the populous, where there exists a lukewarm (at best) receptivity to receiving the vaccine.
The two COVID-19 vaccines currently circulating were both produced and granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in less than a year, a record achievement. Yet, according to the Pew Research Center, “21% of U.S. adults do not intend to get vaccinated and are ‘pretty certain’ more information will not change their mind.” Additionally, only 55% of those under the age of 30 said they will “definitely” or “probably” get vaccinated (Funk and Tyson). About 70-90% need to be vaccinated for the U.S. to receive herd immunity, the end goal in this process (Dador). Therefore, there may need to be measures in place to incentivize people to be vaccinated as soon as they can.
Before looking at the potential incentives that could be offered, it’s important to look at the decision calculation of a U.S. citizen when deciding whether to take the vaccine. The clear benefit of the vaccine is personal safety; the vaccines are extremely efficacious in preventing death or severe illness. However, as seen with the Pew study, the impact of this benefit ranges for various groups; young people have a low risk of death or severe illness even without the vaccine. Furthermore, receiving the vaccine does not offer individuals a “return to normal”. Whether one has the vaccine or not, it is still expected to wear a mask and socially distance. Turning to the costs, the primary two are time and side effects. To get the vaccine, people will have to carve out time from their day, and in some cases have to wait in large lines. Additionally, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines consist of two shots, doubling the time cost to the individual. The second risk is in the side effects. The CDC notes that these vaccines can cause side effects such as headache and chills; by signing up for the vaccine, one would be signing up for these.These vaccines were pushed to market in record time, and there has not been enough time to sufficiently study the long term effects of these vaccines on people, which could offer a risk to people.
The two incentives I shall focus on are employer-based and individual-based. Some employers have already started to offer a few days off for employees right after they receive the vaccine (Mitropolous). This has the effect of reducing the side effect cost of the vaccine since individuals will be able to rest while experiencing the mild side effects. Additionally, it adds the further benefit of days off from work. Some potential policy avenues with this include, but are not limited to: government employees receiving optional days off post-vaccine, as well as federal or state tax credits for businesses that offer the policy in order to offset their potential drop in productivity.
The second incentive level to target is that of the individual. One option is to offer either a tax credit or direct payments to individuals who receive the vaccine. Numerous high profile figures have advocated for this, and Robert Litan of the Brookings Institution released a proposal for $200 paid upon vaccination, and $800 when herd immunity is achieved. These payments would not directly negate any of the costs associated with the vaccine, but possibly change the decisions of those on the margins. However, there are drawbacks to this. On the financial side, $1000 per person is costly, especially when compounded with the multiple COVID relief packages. Additionally, Dr. Emily Largent and Dr. Franklin Miller outlined some concerns with these proposals, the most notable being that paying people to be vaccinated could signal the danger of the vaccine, leading to increased apprehension among individuals. Furthermore, it could be seen as coercive, dangling money in front of Americans in a time when many are in great economic need.
We are in the depths of a crisis, and the vaccines seem to be our ticket out. Based on our current rate of vaccinations, it will be a while until we are out of the woods. Offering incentives for the vaccine could speed up this process. Based on the proposal floated, the business side ones seem more feasible and less costly, however, individual payments or tax credits could have a larger effect.
Appendix
Dador, Denise. “With Vaccinations Underway, When Can We Expect to See Herd Immunity?” ABC7 Los Angeles. KABC-TV, January 31, 2021. https://abc7.com/herd-immunity-covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-moderna/10202952/.
Funk, Cary, and Alec Tyson. “Intent to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases.” Pew Research Center Science & Society. Pew Research Center, December 30, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/.
Huang, Pien, and Audrey Carlsen. “How Is The COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign Going In Your State?” NPR. NPR, February 3, 2021. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state.
Mitropolous, Arielle. ABC News. ABC News Network, January 14, 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/hospitals-businesses-offering-incentives-hesitant-covid-19-vaccines/story?id=75209689.
Largent, Emily A, and Franklin G Miller. “Problems With Paying People to Be Vaccinated Against COVID-19.” JAMA. JAMA Network, January 6, 2021. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2775005.
Litan, Robert. “If Necessary, the U.S. Should Pay People to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine.” Brookings. Brookings, December 18, 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/12/17/if-necessary-the-u-s-should-pay-people-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/.
“What to Expect after Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accessed February 6, 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html.