Photo Source: Politico
Written by Hadin Sayed
When Kabul fell to the Taliban, the international media relentlessly covered the implications of the Talibanization of Afghanistan. However, an overlooked aspect of the Taliban Resurgence is the effect on Afghanistan’s opium market, the largest in the world. Immediately after taking control of Afghanistan, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid proclaimed, “Afghanistan will not be a country of cultivation of opium anymore”.1 However, the dire situation of the Afghan economy and the immense size of the opium market calls into question the feasibility and legitimacy of this hardline position.
Although unknown to many, Afghanistan’s opium production is 85% of the international market.2 In 2019, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reported that the gross value of the opiate economy was 1.2 to 2.1 billion dollars, which is 7% to 12% of Afghanistan’s GDP.3 A complete ban on opium production would devastate the Afghan economy. With the colossal level of opium production in 2018, the opium market provided over 500,000 jobs to local and migrant workers and is the single largest sector in the entire Afghanistan economy.3 The income generated by workers largely went to elements of autonomous consumption—items like food, paying debt, and medical expenses. Further, banning opium production would be a political nightmare. Afghanistan was already in a state of political turmoil, even before the Taliban took over. To regain control of Afghanistan, the Taliban depended on many poppy seed farmers. Turning their backs on those farmers would intensify the political division in a situation where the Taliban desperately needs stability.
Before the Taliban took over, Afghanistan’s economy was already crippled and heavily dependent on foreign aid. According to the World Bank, 42% of their GDP came from foreign aid. After the Taliban took over, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund suspended payments into Afghanistan.4 The Biden administration has also recently frozen Afghanistan’s assets held in the United States. This has contributed to Afghanistan’s economy contracting by 40% since August and to prices more than doubling.5,6 With these cuts in foreign aid, in order to see any semblance of growth, the citizens need opium production to survive. As it is, 95% of citizens are not getting enough to eat, according to the United Nations.6 Unless foreign aid begins pouring back into Afghanistan, or political allies start investing in the country, Afghanis will have no choice but to turn to opium production—no matter what their new government dictates.
For the Taliban, there is already precedent for such policy in Afghanistan. When the Taliban was rising to power in the 1990s, the militant group took a similar position to poppy cultivation. Originally, viewing drug production as anti-Islamic, its leaders vowed to ban the production of opium. However, the Taliban transformed their attitude toward opium relatively quickly. What started as a laissez-faire approach to its production progressed into a taxation system. A 10% tax was levied on opium production, which generated $9 million off of 1,500 tons of opium.7 The profits from the opium poppy forced the Taliban to change their outward political stance on the drug. The Taliban modified their position to reflect the statement: “The consumption of opiates is forbidden, as is the manufacture of heroin, but the production and trading in opium is not forbidden.”⁷ Profit grew immensely, and in the late 1990’s they increased the tax to 20% and were able to generate between $45 to $200 million per year.⁷ Not only was the taxation of opium financially beneficial to the Taliban, it provided a reliable source of income to an economy decimated by war with the USSR.
The Taliban today promises to be completely different from the Taliban that ruled in the latter half of the 1990s. This time, spokesperson Mujahid claims the Taliban will be more liberal, especially with their attitudes towards the treatment and freedoms of women. However, applying a tax on opium was something even the old Taliban was comfortable doing, so we shouldn’t be shocked if they turn back on their word now. Given the halt of foreign cash and the plummet of the Afghan economy, it would be preposterous to do so. Nevertheless, the Taliban’s present position puts them in an ideal scenario. It is a political maneuver rather than a position rooted in the truth. On the surface, they may act authentic, and match their fundamentalist ideology with a hardline anti-opium production stance. However, understanding the vast implications of the actualities of the policy, the Taliban can tax the good, or at the very least take a laissez-faire approach to the ban, so the devastating effects on the economy are not outwardly seen.
1. Taylor, Adam. “Growth of Afghan Opium Trade May Undermine Taliban Pledge to Kick the Habit.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 29 Aug. 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/28/growth-afghan-opium-trade-may-undermine-taliban-pledge-kick-habit/.
2. Looney, Robert. “The Taliban Will Have Trouble Reining in Afghanistan’s Opium Economy.” For Afghanistan, Opium Revenues Will Be Hard to Replace, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30086/for-afghanistan-opium-revenues-will-be-hard-to-replace.
3. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2020 – United Nations Office on … https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/20210503_Executive_summary_Opium_Survey_2020_SMALL.pdf.
4. “Afghanistan: World Bank Halts Aid after Taliban Takeover.” BBC News, BBC, 25 Aug. 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58325545.
5. Trofimov, Yaroslav. “WSJ News Exclusive | Afghanistan’s Opium Business Cranks up as the Taliban Look the Other Way.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 21 Nov. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistans-opium-business-cranks-up-as-the-taliban-look-the-other-way-11637491200?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_5&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s.
6. Shah, Saeed, and Joël van Houdt. “As Afghanistan Sinks into Destitution, Some Sell Children to Survive.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 16 Oct. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-afghanistan-sinks-into-destitution-some-sell-children-to-survive-11634387501?mod=search_trending_now_article_pos4.
7. Felbab-Brown, Vanda. “Pipe Dreams: The Taliban and Drugs from the 1990s into Its New Regime.” Brookings, Brookings, 16 Sept. 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pipe-dreams-the-taliban-and-drugs-from-the-1990s-into-its-new-regime/#footnote-20.
Photo Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/afghanistan-opium-drugs-taliban-dilemma/