By Rob Lucas
Democrat politicians are starting to feel the heat from the upcoming midterm elections, especially with a fragile majority, low presidential approval ratings, and generic ballots that show losing to Republicans according to FiveThirtyEight. The main factor that has led to this unpopularity has been inflation; however, the role gas prices have played is a bit murkier. Talking heads and Republicans have seized upon the rising gas prices to attack President Biden and the Democrats. Does this impact their chances later this year, and in 2024? While there is a correlation between a rise in oil prices and a fall in presidential approval ratings, that does not entail causation. There is likely a link between oil prices and presidential approval ratings, but it may not be as large as many assume it to be.
Oil and natural gas impact every aspect of our lives, including in many areas we would not normally associate them with. While the first things that come to mind are how much a tank of gas costs, or the price of your energy bill, the higher prices impact the production and transportation of just about any good. Due to it being a cornerstone of production and consumption, and being very visible when prices change, it is an easy measure for many Americans to track the well-being of the economy.
Oftentimes, shocks to gas prices are not attributed to a president’s approval rating, as seen in the 1970s when OPEC embargoed the US, or even now with gas prices rising due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The opposite is also true, as Trump did not receive a bump in approval when gas prices were low in 2020 due to the low demand from COVID-19 and its restrictions.
President Biden’s approval ratings over the course of his presidency (Data For Progress)
The rise in gas prices have been strongly correlated with Biden’s rising disapproval rates (Harbridge, Krosnick & Wooldridge). Other factors may be at play to explain this, however. Biden, like most presidents, has had many issues that he has promised to tackle. Since his early legislative success and post-inauguration honeymoon period, the COVID-19 pandemic has lingered, and many of the other items on his agenda have stalled (Dashi). This is all happening while oil prices have gone up due to supply chain complications that rose from the coronavirus pandemic.
More recently, this supply pinch has been felt even more due to cutting off Russian oil imports. However, a recent Ipsos poll shows that 77% of Americans support this decision. While Americans may be content with prices rising, at least for now, 70% disapprove of how the Biden Administration has been trying to tackle gas prices. While this may plague Democrats later this year, overall, the effect that gas prices have on the President’s parties has only gone down in recent years. Presidential approval ratings have become more static as a result of increasing political polarization, so events that would have led to larger changes are now smaller because people have more fixed opinions. This creates a higher floor and lower ceiling for approval ratings.
Higher prices, whether from inflation or gas prices affect everyone differently. Americans who have longer commute times are “more likely to hold the president accountable for gasoline price increases (Harbridge, Krosnick & Wooldridge). This may play to the Democrats’ advantage as their bases of support are more urban, with shorter commute times than their more rural, and often Republican counterparts. The most hurtful part of the increase in the price of gas may be its contribution to what was an already high inflation rate. 70% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of inflation (Ipsos). Unlike gas prices, which over time will probably go down once supply starts to increase again, inflation will be a longer fix. While gas prices may not go down fast enough to help in 2022, the same problems may not be there in 2024. Inflation will always be around. More effective use of time and political power would be to shift focus on trying to lower inflation and fulfill campaign promises, as those are more likely to change popularity rates. Additionally, Democrats have more control over those aspects as actions sought to increase the supply of gasoline would take more time to go into effect.
Overall, an increase in gasoline prices, while not a good thing, is probably overstated in its importance to a politician or party’s approval ratings. While there is a correlation between the two, some of it can be explained through the events that have caused gasoline prices to rise. Given that there is not much to be done to alleviate people from the burden of high prices, it would be more effective to focus on lowering inflation, a different aspect of the economy that can be solved domestically.
Citations:
Guest Column, Virginia Mercury March 22. “Link between Gas Prices and Presidential Approval Seems to Be Weakening.” Virginia Mercury, 22 Mar. 2022, https://www.virginiamercury.com/2022/03/22/link-between-gas-prices-and-presidential-approval-seems-to-be-weakening/
Harbridge, L., Krosnick, J. A., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Presidential approval and gas prices: Sociotropic or pocketbook influence? In Political Psychology: New Explorations (pp. 246-275). Taylor and Francis Inc.. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315445687
Jackson, Chris, et al. “Americans Continue to Support Ban on Russian Oil.” Ispos, 13 Mar. 2022, https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/March-2022-ABC-news-poll.
Ruia, Devi. “Do Voters Disapprove of Biden – or Rising Gas Prices?” Data For Progress, Data For Progress, 17 Nov. 2021, https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/11/17/do-voters-disapprove-of-biden-or-rising-gas-prices.
Silver, Nate. “Generic Ballot Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 22 Apr. 2022, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
Silver, Nate. “How Popular Is Joe Biden?” FiveThirtyEight, 22 Apr. 2022, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo.
Tuxbury, Sarah. “Should the Price of Gas Fuel Presidential Performance Ratings?” Dearborn, 9 Mar. 2022, https://umdearborn.edu/news/should-price-gas-fuel-presidential-performance-ratings.
Wood, Isaac. “Sabato’s Crystal Ball.” Sabatos Crystal Ball, https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/itw2011042801/.