Written By Spencer Lynn
In February of this year, USAID, or the US Agency for International Development, was gutted when the newly inaugurated President Trump took executive action to dismantle the agency ((Knickmeyer et al., 2025). The move slammed humanitarian programs worldwide, eliminating 90% of all American foreign aid contracts. The agency currently provides aid to impoverished and third-world countries around the world, with missions primarily concentrated in Africa and Asia. In most locations, USAID provided food and free vaccinations against diseases such as HIV, which is particularly prevalent in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Moyo et. al, 2024). Families in the region have come to rely on this aid for their livelihood, which means that withdrawal will produce deadly impacts for Sub-Saharan Africa as a region.
A number of countries in Africa will be affected, beginning with Ethiopia. The West African country was heavily reliant on USAID funds and received more than $1.7 billion in aid per year (Cillers, 2025). Other large recipients of American aid included Somalia, DRC, Nigeria, Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, and Mozambique, all of which received aid worth more than $400 million a year. Given that the United States provided 26% of all aid supplied to the African continent, the impact of the funding freeze will be detrimental to aid numbers. Total aid to Africa will be cut by 20% as a result.
Multiple statistical models have predicted the long-term economic fallout of the aid freeze. If the Trump administration succeeds in pausing all funding, 5.7 million more Africans would fall below the extreme poverty level by 2030 than if funding continued (Cillers). Ethiopia, Somalia, and the DRC, as the largest prior recipients of USAID, would be the countries most impacted. In 5 years, the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa would be $4.5 billion USD less than predicted levels prior to the funding cut. A smaller economy means less job opportunities, more poverty, and increased migration from the region.
USAID’s collapse will also produce a staggering impact on Africa’s startup economy. USAID has historically funded innovation and entrepreneurship in Kenya. Without startup capital and grants, thousands of small-scale farmers and business owners are now left without a safety net. In Kenya alone, startups will be left with a $100 million funding shortfall left by USAID cuts (Ajim Capital, 2025). Preliminary estimates suggest that this impact will result in Kenya’s startup economy shrinking by 15% within the next 3 years (Anderson et. al, 2025). This decline will have effects on the broader Kenyan economy and will lead to higher unemployment rates, which will further slow the West African country’s economic growth.
The humanitarian fallout of the rushed termination of USAID programs also cannot be understated. The suspension of funding caused an immediate stop to services for HIV testing, treatment, and prevention in 50 countries. Early estimates from the World Health Organization predict that these cuts could “lead to more than 10 million additional cases of HIV and three million HIV-related deaths, more than triple the number of deaths last year” (Cullinan, 2025). There have already been reports of mothers and their children in South Sudan dying after being unable to access a USAID clinic to receive life-saving HIV medication. The women and children of the third world; this is the population that will pay the largest price for Washington’s decision. Already, more than 80% of the food kitchens that feed refugees from the Sudanese Civil Warwar have been closed (Usher & Soy, 2025). As time goes on, the existing funds to keep the rest of these food kitchens alive will run dry, and famine may then rampage through Sudan.
The funding cuts also pose a direct threat to political stability in already fragile regions. In countries like Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where governance is strained and security is often maintained through foreign aid. The removal of this funding may cause institutional collapse. In Somalia, USAID not only supported food and vaccination initiatives but also provided financial aid to local governments that provided peacekeeping (US Embassy in Somalia). With power vacuums emerging in rural regions, militant groups, such as the Al-Shabaab terrorist organization, may fill the void without substantial resistance from the local government, which was previously supported by USAID. Even more concerning is the idea that without basic government services that were provided through USAID, recruitment into these groups may increase (Mesa, 2025). This will certainly lead to an uptick in violence in the region. Without access to these basic services, desperation and resentment among the affected population will grow. Extremist groups such as Al-Shabaabb exploit such discontent by offering a way out, sometimes in the form of financial incentives, to disenfranchised youth. This subsequently increases recruitment numbers.
The hastened dismantling of USAID will produce drastic consequences for Africa. The 20% reduction in total aid to Africa will produce long-lasting economic, humanitarian, and political impacts. The crippling economic fallout of President Trump’s decision will take years to correct, and many jobs, businesses, and cities will suffer in the meantime. The damage is beyond economic, however. The humanitarian impact of USAID’s withdrawal can also not be understated; entire communities will be left to die, not just from hunger and disease, but from the collapse of the health and agricultural programs that USAID once supported. The disappearance of vaccines and food aid has placed millions of lives at risk and eroded decades of developmental progress in a matter of months. Finally, the governmental instability created by the end to USAID will drive thousands of young men into the arms of militant groups around the continent, causing further political havoc.
For millions of people in Africa, the death of USAID was the final nail in their coffin.
Citations:
Ajim Capital. (2025, February 13). How much does the U.S. invest in Africa? The impact of USAID withdrawal on startups and why more investment is crucial. https://www.ajimcapital.com/blog/how-much-does-the-u-s-invest-in-africa-the-impact-of-usaid-withdrawal-on-startups-and-why-more-investment-is-crucial
Anderson, S., Felbab-Brown, V., Feltman, J., Grown, C., Hansen, M., Ingram, G., Pepinsky, T., Pipa, A., Qargha, G., Reynolds, M., & Shah, S. (2025, February 3). What comes after a USAID shutdown? https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-comes-after-a-usaid-shutdown/
Cilliers, J. (2025, February 28). Data modelling reveals the heavy toll of USAID cuts on Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/data-modelling-reveals-the-heavy-toll-of-usaid-cuts-on-africa
Cullinan, K. (2025, March 17). Grim global impact of US funds withdrawal; WHO mulls ‘terrible choices’. Health Policy Watch. https://healthpolicy-watch.news/grim-global-effects-of-us-funds-withdrawal/
Knickmeyer, E., Amiri, F., & Gomez Licon, A. (2025, February 3). Trump and Musk move to dismantle USAID, igniting battle with Democratic lawmakers. Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-doge-usaid-federal-workers-bfb69a0bf38419b7518555de42169ca1
Mesa, J. Newsweek. (2025, February 25). Trump’s USAID shakeup threatens millions in Sudan. https://www.newsweek.com/usaid-sudan-famine-doctors-without-borders-trump-2031620
Moyo, E., Moyo, P., Murewanhema, G., Mhango, M., Chitungo, I., & Dzinamarira, T. (2023). Key populations and Sub-Saharan Africa’s HIV response. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 1079990. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1079990
Plett Usher, B., & Soy, A. (2025, February 25). ‘People will starve’ because of US aid cut to Sudan. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7x87ev5jyo
U.S. Embassy in Somalia. (n.d.). USAID – U.S. Embassy in Somalia. https://so.usembassy.gov/usaid-somalia/