Written by: Arnav Gupta
The United States is going through an affordability crisis. According to CBS News, roughly half of all Americans say that it is harder to afford food now compared to last year (Picchi & Cunningham, 2025). Around 75% of Americans say it is harder to afford a home in recent years, and on top of that, the cost of child care has risen roughly 30% since 2020. Healthcare costs have gone up, utility bills are rising, and Americans demand answers.
The Trump administration’s immigration and trade crackdowns haven’t been helping. Inflation has not risen to the extent people predicted upon the tariff enactment, but it has been steadily rising since, currently hovering at 3% (Ma, 2025). This, combined with a stagnant job market, slowing wage growth, and increasing unemployment does not spell a hopeful future for American affordability.
Early in November, President Trump announced via Truth Social that tariff revenue is in the trillions, and will be used to give a $2,000 payment to “everyone”, excluding “high-income” Americans (Sutherland, 2025). In a later post, he noted that the money left over from these payments will be used to pay off the debt. It is important to note that this does not necessarily mean a check coming in the mail. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that this $2,000 amount could be materialized in avenues such as tax decreases.
The tariffs have reportedly brought in roughly $200 billion in FY2025, and over the next decade, if left fully intact, are expected to bring in almost $3 trillion (Goldman, 2025). Though seemingly feasible, there is a lot left to be known about these proposed payments. On the surface, they don’t seem to different from President Trump’s payments from the COVID-19 pandemic; those payments were notably exempt from taxes. In order for the proposed payments to also follow suit, they will need to be excluded from income by law. For actual payments to be issued rather than in-built tax cuts, it also appears that Congress will need to be involved for that to be a possibility.
The question then arises about whether or not these payments would even provide the relief it seems the Trump administration is aiming to provide. For starters, the billions in revenue the tariffs have generated are less than the “trillions” President Trump was claiming on social media, making these payments harder to dole out. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget has estimated a roughly $600 billion cost for the tariff dividends (Jacobson & Uribe, 2025).
So historically, what has worked to alleviate affordability concerns in America? The answer primarily lies in policy measures which provide stable and consistent support, boost supply of unaffordable goods, and/or respond to economic conditions. Programs like the EITC and SNAP benefits are means-tested and are designed to maximize impact. They are also long-run programs, providing consistent aid while Americans get back on their feet and improve their situations.
In comparison, the Trump-proposed tariff dividends do not offer much stability as they are dependent on uncertain tariff revenues and Congressional support, they only offer temporary income relief as a direct injection of cash (presumably, unless they are bundled into tax cuts), and if distributed broadly, may not have a far-reaching impact on affordability if many recipients who don’t really need the stimulus end up receiving it.
One positive effect of these payments is that people will become more risk-tolerant if they were to receive cash. History tells us that a large portion of these stimulus payments could end up in the stock market, which happened during the COVID-19 stimulus package rollout. Roughly $100 billion of the allotted $814 billion ended up in the market, leading to a boom (Rosen, 2025). Risk appetite was effectively fostered in this case.
It appears that the affordability crisis requires more lasting change rather than temporary relief in waves. They also occupy an interesting political gray area: doling out payments in this manner is similar to government redistribution efforts such as UBI. In this case, it is being framed as a product of successful trade policy rather than wealth redistribution, but it could accomplish a similar effect.
Tariff-funded payments take an interesting detour from traditional Conservative resistance to unconditional cash transfers. A program implemented in this manner could make something like a pseudo-UBI program more acceptable to Americans since it is not branded as welfare necessarily (Crews Jr., 2025).
In any case, there is much to learn about these payments and whether or not they are feasible. The roughly $600 billion cost of this proposal may not even be met by tariff policy which is constantly fluctuating, hampering revenue estimates. However, it offers a glimpse into a Conservative vision for what a cash-transfer program may look like, a surprising turn hidden under the veil of trade populism.
References
Crews Jr., C. (2025, November 17). Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Checks: The Backdoor UBI Conservatives Should Fear. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynecrews/2025/11/17/trumps-2000-tariff-checks-the-backdoor-ubi-conservatives-should-fear/
Goldman, N. (2025, November 10). A $2,000 Tariff Dividend? Trump’s New Pitch Raises Tax Concerns. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathangoldman/2025/11/10/a-2000-tariff-dividend-trumps-new-pitch-raises-tax-concerns/
Jacobson, L., & Uribe, M. (2024). What to know about Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend proposal. Politifact. https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/nov/10/Trump-tariff-dividend-2000-stimulus/
Ma, J. (2025, November 23). “It didn’t have to be this way”: Top economist warns affordability crisis will continue as tariffs and immigration crackdown send inflation higher. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2025/11/23/affordability-crisis-inflation-outlook-trump-tariffs-immigration-crackdown-prices/
Picchi, A., & Cunningham, M. (2025, November 19). America’s deepening affordability crisis summed up in 5 charts. Cbsnews.com. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/affordability-2025-inflation-food-prices-housing-child-care-health-costs/
Rosen, P. (2025, November 10). President Trump’s Tariff Dividends Could Juice the Stock Market Just Like Pandemic Stimulus Checks. Inc. https://www.inc.com/phil-rosen/stock-market-outlook-trump-tariffs-dividend-stimulus-asset-prices-equities/91262095Sutherland, C. (2025, November 10). Trump Again Floats Idea of Giving $2,000 to Most Americans. Here’s What to Know. TIME; Time. https://time.com/7332447/trump-promises-check-to-americans-tariffs-revenue-dividend-stimulus/