Written By: Alec Corey
Unprecedented internal immigration enforcement action has become a major talking point for its proponents and opponents alike. A flood of media coverage, both corporate media and individual social media, has taken to the scenes of I.C.E. and C.B.P activity, especially in my home state of Minnesota. Minneapolis, MN has been a divisive and forceful target of “Operation Metro Surge,” the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s targeted effort to detain and deport unauthorized immigrants. According to former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, the major goal of immigration enforcement was “making America safe again and putting the American people first” (Department of Homeland Security, 2025). This claim, however, is not supported by the data.
According to a leak obtained by the Cato institute, a libertarian think-tank, only 5% of nationwide ICE detainees have violent convictions, and 73% have no criminal convictions at all. (Bier, 2025). It’s irrefutable that the average detainee is not the “worst of the worst” as former secretary Noem repeatedly claimed. Instead, many innocent citizens and law-abiding unauthorized immigrants—those who are guilty of nothing more than a civil immigration infraction—have suffered the consequences of “Operation Metro Surge.” While Minnesotans have already paid a significant price from immigration enforcement presence, additional consequences may unfold in the long run, including lasting harm to endangered laborers, local businesses, and educational achievement.
The most obvious economic impact of immigration enforcement comes from targeting and arresting undocumented immigrants: fear to participate in the economy. Over the course of the operation in Minnesota, at least 3,000 people have been arrested by immigration enforcement (Brito, 2026). Seeing these arrests, especially the videos on social media exhibiting particularly brutal behavior by immigration enforcement, led a lot of workers with insecure immigration status to become fearful and forgo work. This temporary employment reduction, while fairly small for the metro area, caused two key effects: a reduction in labor supply for businesses and a reduction in household earnings for the endangered laborers. According to the city of Minneapolis, $47 million in wages were lost in one month due to “people too afraid to leave home and go to work” (City of Minneapolis, 2026). Down the line, this impacts economic wellbeing, including a need for $15.7 million in rent assistance since December and $2.4 million per week for food assistance during Metro Surge to support immigrant households (City of Minneapolis, 2026). Additionally, the harmful effects on the wellbeing of endangered people exist in an interdependent economy, causing a ripple effect on businesses.
As a result of this reduction in labor force participation among commonly targeted demographic groups, businesses that employ immigrant workers struggled to find people to pick up shifts. When people are afraid to engage in daily activities, the economy suffers at large, an effect first seen in business revenues. According to the city of Minneapolis, $81 million of revenue for restaurants and small businesses was lost in one month during Metro Surge (City of Minneapolis, 2026). One possible effect for all Minneapolis consumers is increased food prices, further worsening the affordability crisis. This occurs through labor supply decreasing, causing total labor quantity to decrease and potentially increase wage rates in the area, making it more costly to hire workers.
Many small businesses and restaurants exist in predominantly immigrant communities, leading to employment of immigrant workers. According to a recent Pew Research Center report, 42% of U.S. adults believe food prices will increase in their area. Moreover, 64% of left-leaning adults, the majority political group in Minneapolis, believe their food prices will increase. Concerningly, 56% of immigrant adults believe their food prices will increase, underscoring the impact Metro Surge has had on the most heavily targeted community. (Noé-Bustamante & Gramlich, 2025). While we don’t have data that provides a clear causal link between immigration enforcement and inflation in food prices, public anticipation of increased prices is enough to raise concern through inflationary expectations. Inflationary sentiment can itself be a driver of inflation if people choose to purchase more today to avoid higher costs later, driving up today’s demand, pulling up prices immediately. In the long run, the struggle faced by these businesses could lead to permanent closures, similar to the effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Unfortunately, Minneapolis may suffer a loss of business in some high-immigrant areas as well as a drastic loss in cultural diversity in local businesses.
In addition to businesses, schools were targets for immigration officers. According to Zena Stenvik, the superintendent of Columbia Heights Public Schools, “‘ICE agents have been roaming our neighborhoods, circling our schools, following our buses, and coming into our parking lots multiple times and taking our kids’” (Romero, 2026). Two targets of immigration enforcement in Columbia Heights were 5-year old Liam Conejo Ramos and his father who were targeted on their way back home from school. Despite being pending asylum seekers acting within legal pathways, they were detained, causing national outrage. Out of concern for their safety, students and parents chose absence from school, missing out on important education. In some school districts that were particularly heavy-hit by federal officers, 20-40% of students were absent for weeks at the height of Metro Surge (Shockman, 2026). As we learned in 2020’s COVID-19 pandemic, students who engage in remote learning experience more negative academic and social outcomes than their in-class counterparts.
A working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms the damaging effect of immigration enforcement on educational outcomes. In Florida, “Immigration enforcement reduced test scores for both U.S.-born and foreign-born Spanish-speaking students” (Figlio & Özek, 2025). Foreign-born students in particular suffer more extreme consequences due to needing support to establish themselves in their new home country, including learning the skills they need to succeed in the U.S., such as becoming proficient in English. Indeed, a threat to public education for foreign-born students is a danger to educational opportunities for all students, regardless of their immigration status.
In order to reverse the damage of the lasting consequences of “Operation Metro Surge,” policymakers need to act decisively and have a genuine desire to help their constituents. Metro Surge has evidently failed to deliver on making communities safer and more prosperous. In fact, it is clear that the opposite has occurred. The city of Minneapolis estimates a total damage of $203.1 million in lost wages, lost business revenues, and increased welfare support. To help workers, businesses, students, and families recover, much work must be done. Though Operation Metro Surge is at its end, the lasting effects have only begun to shape Minnesota. Hopefully, we will see a shift to end the campaign of mass deportations, instead focusing on protecting people’s rights, making life more affordable, and making legal processes of immigration more accessible. If there’s one thing I know about Minneapolis as a Twin Cities resident, it’s that people will come together and rebuild, standing up for each other in solidarity as a community.
Reference
Bier, D. (2025). 5% of People Detained By ICE Have Violent Convictions, 73% No Convictions. Cato.org. https://www.cato.org/blog/5-ice-detainees-have-violent-convictions-73-no-convictions
Brito, G. (2026, February 9). By the Numbers: ICE in Minnesota. Mpls.St.Paul Magazine. https://mspmag.com/arts-and-culture/by-the-numbers-ice-in-minnesota/
City of Minneapolis. (2026). Operation Metro Surge results in $203 million impact on Minneapolis. Minneapolismn.gov. https://www.minneapolismn.gov/news/2026/february/oms-impact/
Department of Homeland Security. (2025, December 19). Under President Trump and Secretary Noem, the Department of Homeland Security Has Historic Year | Homeland Security. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/12/19/under-president-trump-and-secretary-noem-department-homeland-security-has-historic
Figlio, D., & Özek, U. (2025). The Effects of Immigration Enforcement on Student Outcomes in a New Era of Immigration Policy in the United States. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w34452
Noé-Bustamante, L., & Gramlich, J. (2025, April 15). 42% of U.S. adults expect deportations to lead to higher food prices in their area. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/04/15/42-of-us-adults-expect-deportations-to-lead-to-higher-food-prices-in-their-area/
Romero, L. (2026, January 23). 5-year-old asylum seeker detained as ICE expands enforcement in Minnesota. ABC News. https://abcnews.com/US/5-year-asylum-seeker-detained-ice-expands-enforcement/story?id=129451987
Shockman, E. (2026, January 23). Kids, staff, parents detained: How federal activity in Minnesota is affecting schools and students. MPR News. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/23/how-schools-and-students-are-affected-by-ice-enforcement