Papers Papers Publications (DEFAULT AUTHORSHIP IS ALPHABETICAL) Meera Krishnamoorthy Divya Shanmugam Donna Tjandra Jenna Wiens Meera Krishnamoorthy, Divya M. Shanmugam, Donna Tjandra, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Jenna Wiens. (Authorship is not alphabetical; coauthors include computer scientists). “Survival Analysis with Limited Overlap and Censoring Distribution Shift.” Forthcoming at Machine Learning for Health Care. Trenton Chang, Michelle Qiu, Zhiyi Hu, Dylan Zapzalka, Daniel K. Shenfeld, Divya M. Shanmugam, Ravi B. Parikh, Maggie Makar, Zach Brown, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Jenna Wiens. (Authorship is not alphabetical; coauthors include computer scientists and a clinician). “Streamlining Oversight in Medicare Advantage: A New Approach to Measuring Coding Intensity via Contract Rankings.” Forthcoming at Health Affairs Scholar. Trenton Chang Michelle Qiu Zhiyi Hu Dylan Zapzalka Daniel K. Shenfeld Divya M. Shanmugam Ravi B. Parikh Maggie Makar Zach Brown Jenna Wiens Joshua Angrist, Amanda E. Kowalski, Ljubica Ristovska, and Marcia L. Stefanick. May 2025. “Instrumental Variables Methods Reveal Larger Effects of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in the Landmark Women’s Health Initiative Clinical Trial.” AEA Papers and Proceedings. Vol. 115: 215-220. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFJosh Angrist Ljubica Ristovska Marcia Stefanick Zack Cooper, Amanda Kowalski, Eleanor Neff Powell, and Jennifer D. Wu. May 2024. “Politics and Health Care Spending in the United States: A Case Study from the Passage of the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act.” Journal of Health Economics. Vol. 95, 102878. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFZack Cooper Eleanor Neff Powell Jennifer WuCoverage: [The Economist] [Politico] [New York Times] Amanda E. Kowalski. August 2023. “How to Examine External Validity Within an Experiment.” Journal of Economics and Management Strategy. Vol. 32, No. 3: 491-509. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDF Amanda E. Kowalski. May 2023. “Reconciling Seemingly Contradictory Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment and the Massachusetts Health Reform.” Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 105, No. 3: 646-664.Includes content from NBER Working Paper: “Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments” Published ArticlePre-Publication PDF and Online AppendixSlidesData and Code“Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments.”Coverage: [NPR Marketplace] [Yale Alumni Magazine] Amanda E. Kowalski. January 2023. “Behaviour within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines.” Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 90, No. 1: 432-462.Includes content from NBER Working Paper: “Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments”Awarded the Willard G. Manning Memorial Award for the Best Research in Health Econometrics Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFSlidesProblem Set“Doing More When You’re Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments.”Willard G. Manning Memorial Award for the Best Research in Health Econometrics Amanda E. Kowalski. Spring 2021. “Mammograms and Mortality: How Has the Evidence Evolved?” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 35, No. 2: 119-140. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFOnline AppendixData and Code Daren R. Anderson, Samantha Horn, Dean Karlan, Amanda E. Kowalski, Jody L. Sindelar, and Jonathan Zinman. March 2021. “Evaluation of Combined Financial Incentives and Deposit Contract Intervention for Smoking Cessation: A Randomized Controlled Trial.” Journal of Smoking Cessation. Vol. 2021, Article ID 6612505. Published ArticleDaren R. Anderson Samantha Horn Dean Karlan Jody L. Sindelar Jonathan ZinmanPre-Publication NIH Open AccessData and Code David W. Brown, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Ithai Z. Lurie. March 2020. “Long-Term Impacts of Childhood Medicaid Expansions on Outcomes in Adulthood.” Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 87, No. 2: 792-821.Finalist for the NIHCM Research Award Published ArticleDavid Brown Ithai LuriePre-Publication PDFOnline AppendixBKL Medicaid Calculator Documentation OnlyBKL Medicaid CalculatorData and CodeNIHCM Research AwardCoverage: [New York Times] [New York Times] [New York Times] [Connecticut Post] [Academy Health] [Daily Tar Heel] [NBER Digest][Vox] Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, Sukjin Han, and Amanda E. Kowalski. December 2019. “Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation with Stata.” Stata Journal. Vol. 19, No. 4: 768-781. Published ArticleVictor Chernozhukov Ivan Fernandez-Val Sukjin HanPre-Publication PDFStata Command to Implement CQIV Jonathan T. Kolstad and Amanda E. Kowalski. February 2016. “Mandate-Based Health Reform and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Massachusetts Reform.” Journal of Health Economics. Vol. 47: 81-106. Published ArticleJonathan T. KolstadPre-Publication PDFOnline AppendixSlidesProblem SetCoverage: [Yale Daily News] [Boston Herald][Washington Examiner] [New York Times Economix Blog]Video Presentation on Health Reform and the Labor Market: [Brookings Event on The Future of U.S. Health Care Spending, April 2014] [Slides] Amanda E. Kowalski. January 2016. “Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. Vol. 34, No. 1: 107-117.Awarded the Zellner Thesis Award in Econometrics and Statistics Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFOnline AppendixData AppendixStata Command to Implement CQIVZellner Thesis Award in Econometrics and Statistics Amanda E. Kowalski. November 2015. “Estimating the Tradeoff between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance.” International Journal of Industrial Organization. Vol. 43: 122-135. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFSlidesOnline AppendixData Appendix Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, and Amanda E. Kowalski. May 2015. “Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity.” Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 186: 201-221. Published ArticleVictor Chernozhukov Ivan Fernandez-ValPre-Publication PDFStata Command to Implement CQIV Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, and Amanda E. Kowalski. March 2015. “Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice.” American Economic Review. Vol. 105, No. 3: 1030-1036.Awarded the NIHCM Research AwardAwarded the Yale Greer Prize (highlighted as part of research portfolio) Published ArticleMartin Hackmann Jonathan T. KolstadPre-Publication PDFSlidesData and CodeOnline AppendixProblem SetNIHCM Research Award Yale Greer Prize (highlighted as part of research portfolio)Coverage: [Politico] [Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] Amanda E. Kowalski. Fall 2014. “The Early Impact of the Affordable Care Act, State by State.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 277-333. Published ArticlePre-Publication PDFFull SlidesVideo Summary by Justin WolfersInteractive MapData and CodeOnline AppendixCoverage: [Washington Post Blog] [Wall St Journal Blog] [Forbes] [Motley Fool] [Vox]Radio Interview on Early Impact of the ACA: [Top of Mind with Julie Rose, July 2015] Jonathan T. Kolstad and Amanda E. Kowalski. December 2012. “The Impact of Health Care Reform on Hospital and Preventive Care: Evidence from Massachusetts.” Journal of Public Economics. Vol. 96: 909-929. Published ArticleJonathan T. KolstadPre-Publication PDFSlidesCoverage: [NBER Digest] [Knowledge@Wharton] [Newsweek] [The Economist Online] [NPR WBUR CommonHealth]Video Presentations of Massachusetts Research:[Yale Panel on the Economy and the Election, November 2012] [Slides][ISPS Health At Yale, September 2013] [Slides] Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, and Amanda E. Kowalski. May 2012. “Health Reform, Health Insurance, and Selection: Estimating Selection into Health Insurance Using the Massachusetts Health Reform.” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings. Vol. 102, No. 3: 498-501. Published ArticleMartin Hackmann Jonathan T. KolstadPre-Publication NIH Open Access Douglas Almond, Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., Amanda E. Kowalski, and Heidi Williams. November 2011. “The Role of Hospital Heterogeneity in Measuring Marginal Returns to Medical Care: A Reply to Barreca, Guldi, Lindo, and Waddell.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 126, No. 4: 2125-2131.Response to comment on “Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care…” Published ArticleDouglas Almond Joseph J. Doyle Heidi WilliamsPre-Publication PDFResponse to comment on “Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-Risk Newborns” Douglas Almond, Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., Amanda E. Kowalski, and Heidi Williams. May 2010. “Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-risk Newborns.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 125, No. 2: 591-634.Awarded the HCUP Outstanding Article of the Year AwardAwarded the Garfield Economic Impact Award Published ArticleDouglas Almond Joseph J. Doyle Heidi WilliamsPre-Publication NIH Open AccessOnline AppendixSlidesProblem SetHCUP Outstanding Article of the Year Award Garfield Economic Impact Award Amanda E. Kowalski, William J. Congdon, and Mark H. Showalter. (Authorship is not alphabetical). November 2008. “State Health Insurance Regulations and the Price of High-Deductible Policies.” Forum for Health Economics & Policy. Vol. 11, No. 2 (Health Care Reform), Article 8. Published ArticleWilliam J. Congdon Mark H. ShowalterCoverage: [Wall Street Journal] Working Papers Neil Christy and Amanda E. Kowalski. Latest Version: March 2026 (First Version: March 2019). “Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect.” arXiv:2412.16352. Previously circulated as “Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood,” “Counting Defiers: Examples from Health Care” and “General Finite Sample Inference for Experiments with Examples from Health Care,” which superseded and combined two previous working papers: “A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial” NBER Working Paper 25670 and “Counting Defiers” NBER Working Paper 25671. Working Paper Slides“Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood.” arXiv:2407.18206. First Version: July 2024. “Counting Defiers: Examples from Health Care” arXiv:1912.06739v3. First Version: July 2020. “General Finite Sample Inference for Experiments with Examples from Health Care” arXiv:1912.06739. First Version: December 2019. “A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial.” NBER Working Paper 25670. First Version: March 2019. “Counting Defiers.” NBER Working Paper 25671. First Version: March 2019. Amanda E. Kowalski. Latest Version: January 2015. “What Do Longitudinal Data on Millions of Hospital Visits Tell Us About the Value of Public Health Insurance as a Safety Net for the Young and Privately Insured?” NBER Working Paper 20887. Revising and extending with Kurt Lavetti and Lee Lockwood as coauthors. Working PaperKurt Lavetti Lee LockwoodSlidesData Appendix Selected Work In Progress Jacob Berman, Eilidh Geddes, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Ithai Z. Lurie. “The Effects of Medicaid Postpartum Coverage Expansion: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Administrative Tax Data.” Jacob Berman Eilidh Geddes Ithai Lurie Zoey Chopra, Atul Gupta, Amanda E. Kowalski, Rebecca McKibbin, Kevin Rinz, and David Wasser. “Heterogeneity in the Long-Run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Medicaid.” Zoey Chopra Atul Gupta Rebecca McKibbin Kevin Rinz David Wasser Jonathan Beauchamp, Jennifer Bernard, Ryan Fraser, and Amanda E. Kowalski. “How Similar is Sibling Mortality in Later Life?” Jonathan Beauchamp Jennifer Bernard Ryan Fraser Jonathan Beauchamp, Jennifer Bernard, Ryan Fraser, and Amanda E. Kowalski. “Investigating the Impact of Families on Income using Linked US Census and Administrative Tax Data.” Jonathan Beauchamp Jennifer Bernard Ryan Fraser Meera Krishnamoorthy*, Divya M. Shanmugam*, Donna Tjandra, Alex Peahl, Carlo Pancaro, Engy Ziedan, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Jenna Wiens. *Denotes equal contribution. (Authorship is not alphabetical; coauthors include computer scientists and clinicians). “Improving Spontaneous Labor Prediction with Electronic Health Record Data.” Under revision at Nature Communications Health. Meera Krishnamoorthy Divya Shanmugam Donna Tjandra Alex Peahl Carlo Pancaro Engy Ziedan Jenna Wiens
