Author: Kumool Abbi (abbikumool@gmail.com)
Professor at Punjab University, Chandigarh
The Punjab consists of three prominent geographical, cultural and political regions comprising Majha between the rivers Beas and Ravi, Doaba between the Sutlej and Beas rivers and the Malwa beyond the left bank of the Sutlej River.
Malwa is the region which usually springs up a winner for the Punjab elections. It is the state’s “biggest geographical region, also known as the cotton belt” (The Tribune, Jan. 12, 2022). It is made up of 15 districts: Ferozepur, Muktsar, Faridkot, Moga, Ludhiana, Malerkotla, Bhatinda, Mansa , Sangrur, Patiala, Fathgarh Sahib, SAS Nagar, Ropar, Barnala and Fazilka—altogether making up the 69 assembly seats. Usually, the chief minister of the state is elected from this region.
This trend has continued since 1966. The chief ministers from this area include: Gurnam Singh, Lachman Singh Gill, Prakash Singh Badal, Giani Zail Singh, Surjit Singh Barnala, Beant Singh, Rajender Kaur Bhattal, Captain Amarinder Singh and the latest Charanjit Singh Channi. The two exceptions being Gurmukh Singh Musafir from Amritsar and Darbara Singh from Jalandhar.
The Malwa region is characterized by sharp inequalities in the size of landholdings with large landholders owning almost thousands of acres of land in the southern districts of the region (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022). As put by Lakhwinder Singh, “Having large lands has benefitted the Malwa region, making it the zamindari belt of Punjab. The farmers here are rich and consequently, as elections have become dearer, financial power has become equated to political power. As a result it is no surprise that most chief ministers come from this region” (The Print, Jan. 31, 2022). The remaining population is characterized by “small, marginal farmers, landless and Dalits.”
There is also a “high incidence of suicide among the small and marginal farmers and landless laborers, especially in the cotton belt of Sangrur, Bhatinda, Faridkot and Mansa” (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022).
Religiously, Malwa is the birthplace of the Khalsa. It is home to two of the most significant Takhts of Sikhism: Takht Keshgarh Sahib and Takht Shri Damdama Sahib, as well as a large number of traditional, symbolically and politically significant Gurudwaras. The region has remained, as historian Harjanspal Singh puts it, “the hub of many sociopolitical movements. Such movements have brought about a churning in the region leading to political articulation.” In this way, “the region has remained an agent of political change whereas Majha and Doaba have not been able to throw up great leaders after the death of Pratap Singh Kairon” (News9live.com Jan. 19, 2022). The important historical peasant movements associated with this land are the Praja Mandal and PEPSU-Muzara movement; additionally, a large proportion of Akalis who participated in the Punjabi Suba movement belonged to Malwa, a factor which contributed to the Akali dal”s consolidation in the area. In 2017 “this area was the heart of the sacrilege incident at Bargari” (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022) as well as the Behbal Kalan and Kotkapura firing. Lately it has been the nerve center of the recent farm protests with the Bhartiya Kisan Union Ekta Ugrahan holding tremendous influence. The Zameen Prapti Sangharsh Samiti also initiated its activities in this region.
During the 2017 election, the region overwhelmingly voted in support of Captain Amarinder Singh as chief minister, with Congress accounting for 40 seats in the region. The Shiromani Akali Dal retained only 8 seats while AAP won 18 seats in the region. The area has a legacy of a deeply embedded left ideology. It also has a unique tendency of “supporting independents” (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022) and “new entrants” with 61 MLAS being elected for the first time in the 2017 election (India Today Feb. 16, 2022). Interesting statistics of Punjab elections show that “political loyalty in 63% of seats kept changing in election after election. A majority of such seats, 47 in all, are located in the politically significant Malwa region” (India Today Feb. 16, 2022).
The fielding of the Chief Ministerial aspirant Bhagwant Mann from Dhuri is being seen as a “message to voters by installing political heavyweights in the politically significant Malwa region” (The Print Jan. 20, 2022) is perceived as an attempt to “boost the party’s chances in the entire Malwa region” (The Wire Jan. 25, 2022). Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi has been given the Bhadour (reserved) seat to contest along with his traditional constituency of Chamkaur Sahib.
This move is intended to influence “the central Malwa, especially Mehal Kalan (SC), Barnala, Dhuri and other seats in Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency of Bhagwant Mann” (The Tribune Jan. 30, 2022). The former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh is also contesting from his traditional constituency of Patiala.
The problems faced in Malwa are: rising unemployment, drug menace, farmers suicide, rising incidents of cancer, poor road infrastructure, inadequate drinking water, water logging problems, increasing sand and electricity prices, pest attack on crops, a deteriorating law and order situation, disillusionment of the service class, delay in pensions and a fixing of job tenures (The Tribune Jan. 12, 2022). These problems continue to plague the region and reflect “a general disillusionment with the traditional parties in power, during the past three decades” (The Tribune Jan. 12, 2022). The release of Dera Sacha Sauda chief on parole and the voting directions to be given to a sizable dera followers in Malwa are definitely a cause for anxiety for the major political parties.
The border area of Majha region is known as the land of the birth of Sikhism and the “Panthic Belt,” comprises four districts of Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Taran Taran and Pathankot, constituting 25 constituencies. The Majha region is dotted with a “profusion of historical Gurudwaras, including the Golden Temple and the Kartarpur Corridor that leads to a revered shrine across the border in Pakistan. The Hindus are concentrated in Amritsar and Pathankot” (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022).
The issues of concern in the Majha region relates to the persistence of gangster culture and drug smuggling, the fallout of the controversy regarding Bikram Singh Majithia, corruption, sand and liquor mafias prevalent in both the Congress and the Akalis, missing 328 “saroops” of Guru Granth Sahib and the sacrilege incident at Bargari and recent episodes at the Golden Temple and Kapurthala might haunt the Congress party.
Further inadequate help to farmers who till their land beyond barbed fencing and non-implementation of SEZ, controversy over the Dogri certificate which helped the youth join the army. These factors were accentuated along with other issues like inadequate job opportunities for the educated, disillusionment with the ghar ghar Naukri scheme, poor health and education facilities and worsening law and order (The Tribune Jan. 11, 2022). Though a support borough traditionally of the Akalis it returned the Congress with 22 seats in 2017 while the SAD and BJP won two and one each respectively. The “battle to become Majhe da Jarnail” (the General of Majha) has heated up with the contest between Bikram Singh Majithia and Navjot Singh Sidhu for the Amritsar East constituency (The Print Jan. 28, 2022). This region will also be the battleground for deciding the fortunes of a number of Congress leaders who have played a significant role in the current government. These include: the two Deputy Chief ministers Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa and OP Soni, as well as Aruna Chaudhary, Tript Rajinder Singh Bajwa, Sukhjinder Singh Sarkaria, Raj Kumar Verka and Pratap Singh Bajwa from Qadian.
Similarly, other Akali stalwarts some of whom lost the elections in 2017 are back in the fray like Adesh Pratap Singh Kairon from Patti, Bikram Singh Majithia from Majithia, Ranjit Singh Brahmpura from Khadoor Sahib, Virsa Singh Valtoha from Khem Karan and Gulzar Singh Ranike from Attari.
The State BJP chief Ashwini Sharma will be contesting from Pathankot (The Print Jan. 28, 2022). Despite a sense of disillusionment—a general feeling which prevails in the area—is the feeling that “[the AAP remains] the party against which there is no major sentiment” (The Tribune Jan. 11, 2022). A similar sentiment is visible in the “Hindu belt of Pathankot, Sujanpur, Bhoa, and Dinanagar” (The Tribune Jan. 11, 2022). However, a significant feature of the Majha region in Punjab’s electoral politics is that “it has more often than not voted en masse” (The Print Jan. 28, 2022) a trend which would have interesting implications in a multi cornered contest and in a highly “fluid” situation.
The Doaba region constitutes a buffer between Malwa and Majha. It is “considered the most prosperous region in Punjab due to its fertile land and NRI remittances” (Indian Express Jan. 19, 2022). The area is characterized by the numerical domination of scheduled castes who are comparatively well placed than the rest of Punjab in terms of education, employment mobility and migration. Out of the 23 constituencies spread across four districts Adampur, Kapurthala, Phillaur, Jalandhar West, Phagwara, Banga, Sham Chaurasi and Chabbewal are reserved. In terms of the 2011 census out of the total population of 52.08 lakh, 19.48 were Dalits that constituted of 11.88 lakh Ravidasis, 4.56 Valmikis and 3.04 lakh other Dalit Communities. The Congress party is credited for having “played a trump card by giving Punjab its first chief minister from the community” (The Tribune Jan. 13, 2022). This is a move which is expected to swing the communities votes towards the Congress in this area. The decision was seen as a move to offset the effect of the Shiromani Akali Dal and Bahujan Samaj Party pre-poll alliance.
While the SAD too has been actively organizing massive rallies in Phagwara for state President Jasvir Garhi and taking the Channi govt to task for not “recovering hundred crore for SC post metric scholarship scheme” (The Tribune Jan. 13, 2022). Dalit writer Des Raj Kali says: “not only Ravidasis even Mazhabis could opt for Channi, whether or not he is declared a CM”s candidate, the Dalit community has been viewing him as their man. The Congress has scored a point over its rivals by doing something other parties had only been thinking of. In Punjab’s Jat dominated politics it gave the first Dalit chief minister” (The Tribune). It is expected that the Congress may increase its tally from 21 in 2017, to approximately 25 out of 34 reserved assembly seats of the region (Outlook Jan. 23, 2022). For Kaul, a Dalit chief minister can fetch 5–7% floating vote in the party’s favor if he performs (Indian Express Sept. 21, 2021).
He gives reference to exchanges between Dalit WhatsApp groups before the election where they claimed “pehli baar apna banda CM baneya, sare vote pao” (for the first time our man has become the chief minister everybody vote for him). It is to be seen if this translates to actual votes polled, it will make a huge difference (The Wire Feb. 22, 2022). Many politicians are seeing this as a “first Mandal like election” (The Print Jan. 31, 2022). Though the Dalits in Punjab do not vote as a “homogeneous unit” (The Print Jan. 30, 2022) a number of “sharp intra-community divisions between Ramdasia-Ravidass on the one hand and Valmikis-Mazhabis on the other “have been instrumental in thwarting “the emergence of a powerful bloc” (Times Of India Jan. 9, 2022). So another point of political interest would be how “a Dalit CM can accentuate or sharpen the Dalit versus Non-Dalit divide in Punjab” (The Print Jan. 30, 2022).
The very interesting balance struck between reaching out to the Dalits and the promise of realizing foreign aspirations has been attempted by all the political parties in the region. The Shiromani Akali Dal has offered a “student education card “that includes a rupees ten lakh interest free loan for college studies, IELTS fee and admission in foreign colleges. While the Congress offered “free IELTS, TOEFL and PTE coaching.” Not to be left behind, the AAP promised a “Dalit Guarantee Card.” If voted to power, the party would “foot the bill of SC students wanting to pursue engineering, medical or other courses or prepare for competitive examinations.” Moreover “if an SC community child wishes to pursue graduation and post-graduation abroad, the expenses would be borne by the state government” (The Tribune Jan. 13, 2022).
A unique feature of this region is the presence of a large number of deras dotted across Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, Rupnagar, Nawanshahr and Kapurthala who hold a great deal of influence and have a massive influence on the Dalits. The biggest dera of the Ravidassis Dera Sach Khand Ballan is located in Jalandhar district. On the chief ministers first visit after taking over the reigns he was facilitated at the Dera where he announced the setting up of the Guru Ravidass Chair on one hundred and one acres of land adjoining the Dera to research on the life and contribution of Guru Ravidas” (The Tribune Jan. 13, 2022). The important deras which have influence in at least 68 assembly constituencies in Punjab are the Dera Sacha Sauda (27), Radha Swami Satsang (19), Dera Noor Mahal (8), Sant Nirankari Mission (8), Dera Sachkhand Ballan (8) and Dera Namdhari (2). During this election the deras are not visibly prominent due to a severe “backlash” during the last election (India Today Jan. 18, 2022).
The other pulsating issue of concern is the role of the NRIs, whether they would be supporting the AAP like last time even as their enthusiasm seemed to have waned. The AAP in this region too is plagued with issues like change of seats of candidates, fielding new entrant candidates from other parties and allegation of ticket selling (The Tribune Feb. 19, 2022). The diaspora had felt an emotional connection with the Farmers Protest and had offered unconditional moral and material support. Whether it translates into backing the SSM which is attempting to “[consolidate] support in Jalandhar cantonment, Nakodar, Phagwara and Adampur” (The Tribune Jan. 13, 2022) needs to be seen. Jaspal Sidhu, a political analyst, feels that “this new generation of the diaspora is not that enthusiastic about making political investments in Punjab. There’s no visible political alternative. And even economically, inward remittances have been considerably reduced while the peasantry of Punjab is keen to send their own children overseas for economic betterment.” At the same time, “There’s a flight of capital instead when parents in Punjab sell their land to fund the education of their children overseas.” Therefore, the Sikh diasporic interest, he notes, “is getting increasingly limited to religious activities and charity in the cradle of the faith. Making political investment in this political climate makes little sense,” Sidhu concludes (India Today Jan. 17, 2022).
The electioneering has shown an oscillating popularity of politicians and issues for the psephologists, commentators, media and the voters. According to the latest ABP news-Cvoter survey The popularity of Charanjit Channi as the next chief minister is down to 25.9% from 29% last month in comparison to the popularity of AAP’s Bhagwant Mann increased to 35.7% from 23% last month, which is very significant in an election poised to conclude on a narrow finish or hung assembly. Similarly, at the moment issues of identity politics and drug abuse have been eclipsed by focus on governance, infrastructure and employment opportunities. A slew of promises of doles, subsidies and freebies are raining on the electorate. All these factors crystallized together would determine how the different regions of Punjab vote.