Written by Connor Zahler:
Of all the phenomena that social scientists have an interest in, conspiracy theories may appear to have the least association with anything quantitative. Everyone knows the stereotypical hallmarks: tinfoil hats, irrational suspicion, chains of association that defy logic, and general unlikeliness. What few know, though, is that quantitative research into conspiracy theories is a new and growing field. Its insights have the same backing as other research endeavors, and they can tell us more about the world we live in and the people we live alongside. What are those insights?
Spurious Correlations?
If asked to come up with a list of correlates to conspiracy theory belief, there are a few things that spring to mind. Could it be a lack of media literacy? Perhaps distrust in government? Maybe even the amount of tinfoil owned per capita? In fact, the strongest predictor of belief in any one conspiracy theory has been shown to be a belief in other conspiracy theories. This goes all the way back to 1994, where a Rutgers survey found a number of correlations between beliefs in various theories, even those that had no logical connection. For example, those who believed in U.F.O. evidence were statistically more likely to believe in Kennedy assassination theories and that Reagan colluded with hostage takers in Iran. Recent research has found even more links, such as moon landing truth theories and climate change denialism. Perhaps they can all see something we can’t!
Consistency, Conspiracy
Closely related to the previous finding is one even more concerning: belief in conspiracy theories is correlated, even when those beliefs are mutually exclusive. A 2012 study, for example, found a correlation between the belief that Princess Diana was killed by MI6 and the belief that she faked her own death. The same study found a correlation between the belief that Osama bin Laden was dead when Navy SEALs raided his compound and the belief that he is still alive. What do we make of this? For some researchers, the answer seems to be that conspiracy beliefs spring from higher beliefs about the world. If you think something is amiss with the death of Di, you might not care specifically about who killed her, as long as it’s clear that something’s not adding up. When it comes to conspiracies, then, the belief itself is less important than the view of the world it might support.
Who’s a Believer?
Just how much of the population believes in some sort of conspiracy theory? A 2014 study, found, looking back at several other ones, that a consistent half of Americans believe in at least one. Common theories include something about the Kennedy assassination, the idea that the 9/11 attacks were planned by government officials, and that planes are spewing chemicals designed to pacify the public. The authors of this study looked for other correlations and found that a belief in other unseen forces (angels, demons, a global cabal) and a global war between good and evil were strong predictors. A more recent 2022 paper, based on 127 total samples from other studies, reinforced these correlations, and also pointed toward narcissism, schizotypy, pseudoscientific beliefs, and paranoia. Of course, not everyone with these characteristics believes in conspiracies, and not every theorist has these traits; they’ve just been found to be predictors for one another.
I Want to Believe
Conspiracy theories date back to at least the reign of Nero, but they’re more part of the cultural landscape now than almost ever before. It’s important, then, to understand what these beliefs are, what predicts them, and how they come about. There’s a lot we can learn from quantitative research into these theories, and this article was just a small taste of what social scientists have already uncovered. With a QMSS education, you can synthesize these insights into ideas on combating these dangerous beliefs and how to actually debunk them (rather than just contribute even more).