DATA DETECTIVES: ARE YOU LESS CREATIVE THAN CHATGPT?

By Connor Zahler EVERYONE’S SO CREATIVE Over the past year, it’s been impossible to go a single day without a breathless headline about the promise (or doom) of AI technologies. One of the hobby horses in this cottage industry is a focus on jobs. AI will destroy your job. AI is going to make your…

SPORTS CONTRACTS: A QUANTITATIVE NIGHTMARE

SMASHING RECORDS If you follow football, you may have recently heard that Los Angeles Chargers quarterback (and owner of the second best head of hair in the NFL) Justin Herbert signed a blockbuster deal to become the highest paid quarterback in NFL history (in terms of average annual value, AAV). If that sounds familiar, it…

DATA DETECTIVES: ARE WOLVERINES LESS EMPATHETIC?

Up to this point, Data Detectives has focused on claims which lack quantitative backing due to simple errors in calculation. These are the most common types of errors you’ll see: people simply saying things without the requisite backing or people making some sort of statistical mistake that spirals. Today, however, we’ll be looking at a…

Truth is Stranger than Fiction

Written by Connor Zahler: Of all the phenomena that social scientists have an interest in, conspiracy theories may appear to have the least association with anything quantitative. Everyone knows the stereotypical hallmarks: tinfoil hats, irrational suspicion, chains of association that defy logic, and general unlikeliness. What few know, though, is that quantitative research into conspiracy…

STEPPING OUT OF RANK FOR A DATA-DRIVEN CAUSE: U-M LAW AND LAW SCHOOL RANKINGS

Written by Connor Zahler INTRODUCTION It’s not a stretch to assume that most University of Michigan students have heard of, or even consulted, U.S. News and World Report. Since 1983, they’ve put out a ranking of colleges and universities across the United States. Michigan, of course, often ranks highly. They don’t stop at undergraduate programs,…

What Percentage of Marriages End in Divorce?

Written by Connor Zahler: One of the most ubiquitous claims in all of society is that 50% of all marriages end in divorce. It’s been brought up in fights about the course of society, lampshaded by romantic comedies, played straight by romantic tragedies, and is generally omnipresent. As with all common claims, it usually goes…

Consequences of Voight and the Colonial Witch Hunts

Written by Connor Zahler:  In a previous post, Connor talked about a massive overestimation of the human toll during the European witch hunts. It’s easy to dismiss this, and other gross misuses of quantitative methods, as simply a funny anecdote or a one-off mistake. Unfortunately, things like this don’t just fade away with no impact.…

Should We Ditch Daylight Savings Time?

Written by Connor Zahler:  Daylight savings time may be no more. Or, rather, it may now continue forever. Recently, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved a bill that would make daylight savings time permanent. If passed by the House of Representatives and the President, we would spring forward in March 2023 and then not fall backward…