Coffee, Bagels and Registration (8:00-8:30)
Invited Session I5.1.a Rare events in random topology (8:30-10:15, Room: Great Lakes Central, Chair: P. Embrechts)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 8:30-9:00: Yogeshwaran Dhandapani, Random geometric complexes in the thermodynamic regime
- 9:05-9:35: Omer Bobrowski, The topology of noise
- 9:40-10:10: Takashi Owada, Limit theorems for point processes under geometric constraints (and Topological Crackle)[/expand]
Invited Session I5.1.b Spatio-temporal models and inference (8:30-10:15, Room: Forum Hall, Chair: A. Davison)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 8:30-9:00: Hugo Winter, Assessing the risk of heatwaves using extreme value theory
- 9:05-9:35: Simone Padoan, Extremes of skew-symmetric distributions
- 9:40-10:10: Sebastian Engelke, Extremes on river networks[/expand]
Coffee Break and Registration (10:15-10:35)
Contributed Session C5.1.a Wave and climate extremes (10:35-12:15, Room: Great Lakes Central, Chair: Ph. Naveau)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 10:35-10:55: Francesco Fedele, Revisiting the Draupner freak wave
- 11:00-11:20: Toshikazu Kitano, A simple but enhanced test for detecting the occurrence difference in past and future climates
- 11:25-11:45: David Randell, Bayesian inference for non-stationary extremes
- 11:50-12:10: Ross Towe, Predicting the future extreme wave climate of the North Sea[/expand]
Contributed Session C5.1.b Inference methodology (10:35-12:15, Room: Great Lakes North, Chair: J. Beirlant)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 10:35-10:55: Deyuan Li, Tail index of an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors
- 11:00-11:20: Laurent Gardes, A general estimator for the extreme value index: applications to conditional and heteroscedastic extremes
- 11:25-11:45: Derek Young, Pointwise tolerance intervals for non-stationary generalized extreme value regression models
- 11:50-12:10: Thomas Yee, Vector generalized linear and additive extreme value models[/expand]
Contributed Session C5.1.c Space and time (10:35-11:45, Room: Forum Hall, Chair: M. Ribatet)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 10:35-10:55: Monika Kereszturi, Parsimonious and flexible models for spatial extremes
- 11:00-11:20: Nilanjana Laha, Extreme Value Theory for space-time Gaussian fields
- 11:25-11:45: Erwan Koch, Spatial risk measures and applications to max-stable processes[/expand]
Lunch Break (12:15-13:30)
Contributed Session C5.2.a Location of extremes and level crossings (13:30-15:10, Room: Great Lakes Central, Chair: T. Hsing)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 13:30-13:50: Yi Shen, Distribution of the supremum location of self-similar processes with stationary increments
- 13:55-14:15: Xiaoou Li, Level crossing of random functions
- 14:20-14:40: Rodney Martin, Extensions and analysis of a state-space approach to optimal level-crossing prediction for linear Gaussian processes
- 14:45-15:05: Kamil Kosiński, An Erdos-Revesz type law of the iterated logarithm for Gaussian storage processes[/expand]
Contributed Session C5.2.b Modeling extreme events: terrorism and electricity (13:30-15:10, Room: Great Lakes North, Chair: Cl. Klueppelberg)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 13:30-13:50: Pasquale Cirillo, Extremely dangerous events: modeling terrorist attacks
- 13:55-14:15: Mark Dowdeswell, Non-stationary point processes and their extremes: an exploration of electricity demand in South Africa
- 14:20-14:40: Stephen Chan, Extreme value analysis of electricity demand in the UK
- 14:45-15:05: Molete Mokhele, Modelling summer daily peak load demands in South Africa using discrete time Markov chain analysis[/expand]
Contributed Session C5.2.c Modeling extreme events: precipitation and floods (13:30-15:10, Room: Forum Hall, Chair: P. Whitfield)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 13:30-13:50: Julie Carreau, Spatial dependence structure for flood-risk rainfall
- 13:55-14:15: Nicholas Cavanaugh, Probabilistic tail dependence of intense precipitation on spatiotemporal scale in observations, reanalyses, and GCMs
- 14:20-14:40: Whitney Huang, Temperature extremes in climate model simulations under increased CO2 concentrations
- 14:45-15:05: Ilaria Prosdocimi, A point process analysis of the impact of increasing urbanization on flood risk[/expand]
Coffee Break (15:10-15:30)
Invited Session I5.2.a Extremes for random fields (15:30-17:15, Room: Great Lakes Central, Chair: S. Stoev)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 15:30-16:00: Dan Cheng, Distribution of the height of local maxima of Gaussian random fields
- 16:05-16:35: Parthanil Roy, Extremes and large deviations for heavy-tailed random fields with strong dependence
- 16:40-17:10: Jingchen Liu, Rare-event simulation for the stochastic Korteweg-de Vries equation[/expand]
Invited Session I5.2.b Detection and attribution of climate extremes (15:30-17:15, Room: Forum Hall, Chair: R. Smith)[expand, title=”(more)”]
- 15:30-16:00: Philippe Naveau, Return periods and attributable risks for climate extremes
- 16:05-16:35: Pardeep Pall, Diagnosing possible anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013
- 16:40-17:10: Richard L. Smith, TBA[/expand]
